Rate rises in the US won’t force Reserve Bank of Australia’s hand

The Commonwealth Bank reduces the maximum loan-to-value ratios from 95 to 90 per cent
14/03/2017
Families worried economic uncertainty could cost them jobs and mortgages
14/03/2017
Show all

Rate rises in the US won’t force Reserve Bank of Australia’s hand

INTEREST rate rises will be on the minds of many in the world of finance this week, but Australian home buyers should be safe, for now.

Economists and analysts believe the US central bank is almost certain to increase its official interest rate when it meets midweek, possibly the first of four rate rises for the world’s largest economy.

However, Australia’s Reserve Bank — which left its official rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent last week — is widely expected to keep rates steady for the rest of this year.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said he expected the RBA’s official rate to stay the same all year.

“If the RBA is to do anything on rates this year a cut is more likely than a hike. A rate hike is unlikely until later next year,” he said.

Dr Oliver said there had been rising speculation that US Federal Reserve interest rate rises might bring forward Reserve Bank rate rises. However, the US was further into an economic growth cycle than Australia, he said.

“Since the Global Financial Crisis RBA interest rate moves have diverged from those in the US — with the RBA hiking in 2009 and 2010 when the Fed was on hold and the RBA cutting rates last year when the Fed had commenced a tightening cycle. So just because the Fed hikes does not mean the RBA follows.”

BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese has also forecast the RBA to remain on hold all year, but said that rising rates in the US could increase global funding costs for all banks.

This could prompt Australian banks to independently increase interest rates regardless of what the RBA did, he said. “The Fed may do some of the RBA’s work.”

1300 HomeLoan Managing Director John Kolenda said Australia’s economy was a “mixed bag”, which made it difficult to predict future RBA rate moves.

While the RBA was unlikely to move, borrowers should check they were getting the best deal from their lender, he said.

“Complacency is a curse for consumers as the lending market remains highly competitive and it pays to shop around. Over the past six months we have seen many of the banks increase rates across all product segments and their rates vary widely.”

PMA Finance
PMA Finance
PMA Finance lead the way in achieving our client's financial goals by comparing thousands of products from over 35 different lenders. PMA Finance offer a wide range of services and with our team’s extensive knowledge and experience, we are committed to providing you with the best solutions to fit your needs.